Bear Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

710
FXUS66 KHNX 232111
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
111 PM PST Mon Dec 23 2024


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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Winter Storm Warning in effect from 7 AM to 7 PM Tuesday for
the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet.

2. High Wind Warning for the Mojave Slopes and Wind Advisory for
the Mojave Desert from 1 PM Tuesday through 10 AM Wednesday.

3. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon for the San Joaquin
Valley. These thunderstorms can produce heavier amounts of rain
especially over burn scars. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued
from 8 AM Tuesday through 3 PM Tuesday in the Sierra Nevada
Foothills.

4. A shortwave trough on Thursday into Friday brings more
chances of rain. A third trough is expected from Sunday to next
Monday with better chances of precipitation than the second
trough.

5. Fog chances return across the valley Wednesday and Saturday.


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.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon highs continue to rise well above normal today due to
shortwave ridging aloft. Many areas in the SJ Valley can expect
to see highs in the mid to upper 60s today with continued mostly
sunny skies through early afternoon. By this evening, cloud
cover will increase ahead of a storm system that will impact the
region tomorrow.

On Tuesday/Christmas Eve, a storm system will bring moderate to
heavy rain in the valley/foothills and moderate to heavy snow in
the Sierra Nevada throughout the day. The onset of
precipitation is forecast by the early to mid morning hours,
and extend southward through the afternoon. High resolution
model guidance has gotten more bullish with rainfall rates with
the onset of the cold front tomorrow morning. HREF/HRRR is now
indicating rainfall rates in the Sierra Nevada Foothills
reaching 3/4" per hour, which is enough to create Flash Flood
impacts, especially for the Burn Scars that have Debris Flow
risk associated with them. As such, a Flash Flood Watch is now
in effect from 8 AM Tuesday through 3 PM Tuesday in the Sierra
Nevada Foothills. Another round of heavy rain in the San
Joaquin Valley cannot be ruled out due to isolated
thunderstorms. The cold pool aloft will be enough to sustain at
least a few thunderstorms with heavy rain and hail potential.

WSSI guidance continues to show Major Impacts in the Sierra
Nevada through the day tomorrow, mainly attributed to Snow
Amount. Probabilistic guidance shows a 50-80% chance of at least
8 inches of snow, and 30-60% chance for at least 12 inches of
snow above 7000 feet. Tuolumne Meadows currently has the highest
confidence of at least 1 foot of snow, with a 61% probability.
Snowfall will taper off through the afternoon and evening hours
as the cold front completely exits the region. Winds will
continue to increase through and below pass level in Kern
County. Strong onshore gradients will keep winds elevated in the
Mojave Desert tomorrow afternoon through the middle of Wednesday
morning.

Much cooler temperatures across the region are forecast on
Wednesday/Christmas after the Tuesday storm. NBM guidance is
showing some fog potential for Christmas Morning, which will
pose as a hazard for last minute holiday travelers. For the
rest of the week, afternoon highs slowly trend back upwards in a
zonal flow pattern with a few embedded impulses. Thus, periodic
showers forecast across the area cannot be ruled out through
the weekend, especially in the Sierra Nevada.


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.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue across the Central California interior
through 14z Tuesday. After 14z Tuesday, MVFR to IFR cigs and vis
can be expected due to rain. Mountain obscuration in the Sierra
Nevada after 16z Tuesday.


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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  12/22/2024 14:07
EXPIRES: 12/23/2024 23:59
On Monday December 23 2024,  Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Kern County.  Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning
For All in Kern County. No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno,
Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in
Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.



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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for
CAZ338.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for
CAZ337-339.
Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
CAZ317>322-324-325-332-333.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ323-
326>330.
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ab

weather.gov/hanford